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Just common f**king sense, and I feel so much better. Thank you Dylan.

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๐Ÿ™‹๐Ÿพโ€โ™€๏ธAnother David Farrier referral ๐Ÿ˜ Glad to see/read the sane sensible people joining/leading the conversation in these chaotic & uncertain times all over the globe, & here in Aotearoa.

Thanks for covering this so rationally

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This is helpful. Thanks for sending us here @davidfarrier

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I just did a paper at Otago University on conspiracy theories. One trap they fall into is the idea that big events must have big causes. The death of Princess Diana is a classic example. It was such an emotionally charged event it was hard to believe it was just a cascade of stupid sad errors. We have a deep desire for congruence

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I'm leaning towards the obsessed fan/nutcase theory - the same reasons behind the killing of John Lennon, and the attempts on Presidents Ford & Reagan.

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Thank you for this sane take, I needed a break from the sea of yelling. Iโ€™m glad David Farrier pointed us over here, looking forward to reading more of your stuff in the future.

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Really good piece. Thanks for writing.

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Im still looking for the planes in Shanksville and the Pentagon

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What โ€œmedical centerโ€ was he taken to? Who treated him? What was the extent of the injury? What treatment did he receive? How was this not shared or even asked about?

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Trump was taken to Butler Memorial Hospital, about 11 miles away from the location. No details of his treatment have been officially released, but then that's true of most Presidential medical records. It's entirely possible official records will be released in the course of the coming investigations.

It has definitely been asked about, for example in a Daily Beast article they write "the Trump campaign declined to respond to questions about Trumpโ€™s condition and treatment" - but medical records are private by default.

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In an unusual situation like this, they typically would do a mini presser with the doctor. Itโ€™s very strange that the press isnโ€™t really pushing on this.

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That would be entirely up to the patient. It isn't really evidence of anything.

There's not much the press can do. They've clearly asked Trump's campaign for records and been denied, there's no other avenue. They got a statement about his condition, and he's been active since.

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I am not saying it was a false flag or not but a multitude of questions need answered. 1.A 223 travels at 3300 fps at mussel and still 1600 fps at 500 yards. sound travels at 1100 fps so in no way could he hear it before he felt it. 2. The shooter was at 3 o clock so that would mean trump had to turn a full 90 deg to not have it enter the rear of his skull if it even grazed his ear .3. there was no blood trail or flesh on his hair behind his ear eventho his hair protruded beyond his ear with cap on. 4. the picture with appears to be bullet passing trump is too low from angle of picture taken to have struck trump in top of ear

Its foolish to think that after learning of plot that select in trumps circle could not control circumstances and events prior and during to insure trumps safety will controlling shooter without he ever knowing.

It only takes a little induced confusion by a few to pull this off

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I mean, I don't really have time to go full forensic analysis on this at the moment, but here's a few quick thoughts on this.

We can't really tell when Trump felt it. There's a small flinch visible about 200ms (6 video frames) after the first shot is recorded on the main videos. His hand is moving towards his ear about 630ms after the first shot. At the distance of about 130m the sound should have taken about 380ms to reach him. He appears to be feeling it somewhere in the 430ms between the sound and his hand starting to rise from the podium towards his ear.

This is actually complicated further by the fact we're actually not hearing the shot initially, but the supersonic round breaking the sound barrier, followed, about 200ms later, by the sound of the rifle itself.

2) It's a little hard to judge, but Trump's head was turned substantially in the direction of the shooter at the moment the round was fired. At the moment we hear the first shot we're seeing a full profile of his head in the main camera feeds. He turned his head further in that direction just half a second before the shot.

3) I don't think there's any reason to assume there would be blood immediately visible? Anyone who has sliced themselves with a sharp blade, for example, can probably recall a moment where the cut was visible before blood appeared. Again from footage we can see that his hand is on his ear for less than half a second, but in NY Times photograph we can see blood on his hand as he pulls it away, so it was clearly bleeding quickly.

4) It's hard to judge angle and trajectories in a still image like that without more information, but also we don't know which round we're seeing in that photo. There were two shots fired before Trump ducked. We may well be seeing a second shot that had a higher trajectory than the first.

5) I can't plausibly imagine a scenario in which Trump's team learned of a plot outside their own making that they could safely take advantage of in this way. If they knew a real and motivated shooter was planning to shoot at Trump with a rifle, how could they ensure his safety? Clearly it was not safe - one person in the crowd behind him was killed an two others injured.

Do they just tell Trump "hey, some guy is going to shoot at you, we think he'll probably miss, but when you hear the shot react as if you were grazed by the bullet and quickly cut your ear"? It's beyond implausible.

None of the question you raise are real. These aren't really genuine puzzles that don't fit with what appears to have happened. They are points on which to hang doubt and conspiratorial suggestion.

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1.Nothing is said about when he reacted , it was his statement he heard the shot, heard the bullet, before ripping the the flesh of his ear. plausible Trump is just a liar.

2.About 4 seconds before reaction trump was almost turned 90 deg but after he was not more than 2:15 . Shooter was found dead at 90 deg or better with grandstand in his line of fire . hard to determine height of ppl in grandstand at present till maybe be picture of the end of grandstand with ppl comes forth. 3 stills show differently even with camera shot coming from slightly right of podium ..

#. Again nobody said blood was not visible . it was said the was no blood splatter or flesh on hair behind ear and his cap caused it to protrude further than normal. the would be blood and flesh all through his hair if he was at 90 deg . Amazingly not a single hair out of place which even being missed by an 1/4inch would be severely missed up . but maybe as vain as trump is he had SS clean ,comb and fix hair before letting him up for his fist photo op.

4. yes very hard to judge when he have no idea of depth of shot but we have depth if that was the bullet that has alleged to hit his upper part of ear and thats a physical impossibility and if not bullet than i am sure by timing of trumps reaction the camera would have caught another bullet but we all know the timing in photo seems very correct

5. yes i understand you cant plausibly imagine which is just opinion with a little emotion mixed in. Like i said i have no need of either outcome but wished I did not know where shooter was located, did not see with my own eyes trump was not more than at 2:15 ,and did not see the physical impossibility of no blood splatter or flesh in hair with was in path or even if it missed ear by 1/4 of inch.

Hey the guys trump surrounds himself with are no dummies like trump who was told to turn head 90 deg at que on teleprompter but fucked that up.

if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck , looks like a duck isnt it a f ing duck

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Jul 17ยทedited Jul 17Author

Missed this earlier, but for anyone who's reading and cares.

1) People are bad at remembering and accurately recalling critical detail in stressful situations. This is very well known. What he said afterwards and what we can see may easily be different without any purposeful lying. He's clearly reacting to the shot within 6/10ths of a second, possibly sooner.

2) At the moment of the shot his head was turned possibly as far to the right as it was at any point in the whole speech. Here is the video frame in which the first shot is heard: https://imgur.com/a/q9jAfPV

3) His hair is very messy when he stands up at the end, so the idea that he had the USSS "clean, comb and fix" his hair is silly. There's no reason to assume that a high velocity round barely nicking his ear would make a blood trail. Photos make it clear that very little flesh at all was lost.

4) I have no idea what you're saying here. The shooter appears to have fired three rounds in quick succession. The photo from the Times shows Trump's hand rising, which aligns with his actions in the video as the second shot is heard about 760ms after the first. We are seeing a second round in that photograph.

5) Your suggestion was that the Trump team became aware of a plot, decided to let it happen and take advantage of it without direct involvement. Which wouldn't be out of the question if the plan was to let him be caught or killed before Trump arrived. but once live rounds are being fired in the direction of the candidate, there is no way to manage that situation safely, unless perhaps the plan goes further to actually allowing Trump to be assassinated and to take advantage of the outcome with another candidate. And we're getting VERY conspiratorial at that point.

The duck it walks, looks and quacks like is a young guy with ready access to firearms decided, for reasons we don't yet understand, to take shots at a former President.

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1. yes has to be dismissed because trump lies about everything

2.Still is 4 seconds before notice tilt of cap brim .WHY?

3. lol was just a joke because absolutely no rational reasoning why no blood splatter or flesh on hair in direct path of bullet . BTW blood is behind every part of ear so nick theory fails badly. I suspect you know this

4.Picture is in perfect timing with reaction . slight pause between 1st shot in second shot makes second bullet way of of time . From angle of photo and position of bullet i would say it was at right height but 8 inches or more behind trump ,i suspect you know this

5. It just takes trump ,one agent and controlled shooter to pull this off

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One more issue has just surfaced is in picture that bullet trajectory is almost flat .This would be very very hard to achieve since there is at least 10 ft differnce in height from peak of building and shoulder of trump. A 223 will start to drop at 100 yards maybe an inch at 140 yards. But trajectory is basically flat. this flat would require same height at 100 yards which we know was impossible and a slightly lower elevation at 2-300 yards coming from parking lot to the north . Who did this bullet hit in stands ?

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Here's what looks like a pretty good 3D recreation of the event (obviously only made from currently publicly available data) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-w2lVIJc000

Again, what's observed isn't at odds with the primary claims (Crooks shooting from roof)

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"Eric Meek, head football coach of Catholic Central High School and a teacher at Toronto Junior High School, said hearing the gunshots and the sound of people crying was โ€œhorrificโ€ and โ€œvery traumatic.โ€

โ€œIt just turned from happiness to horror in a matter of seconds.โ€

Meek recalled standing near the left grandstand and seeing a spark of a bullet fly off of a John Deere tractor parked to his right. He immediately began recording the scene, even capturing the Steubenville firefighters as they aided in the rescue.

As for security, Meek said he also noticed the nearby water tower and simply assumed there were Secret Service agents on top. Most curious was a moment prior to Trump taking the stage, when two police officers climbed on the tractor and appeared to be looking at something in the crowd.

Dave Brown, a volunteer coach at Catholic Central who joined Meek for the rally, said itโ€™s possible the officers โ€” who he identified as Pennsylvania state troopers โ€” were looking for a possible shooter, noting that reports have come out claiming spectators noticed the rooftop shooter minutes before Trump was set to emerge and attempted to notify security.

Having served as a Marine with a background in surveillance and monitoring, Brown was able to ascertain where the bullet that hit the hydraulic line came from based on where the oil was spraying from. He pointed this and other observations out to nearby agents and proceeded to aid in evacuating people. "

I had a video of this tractor spraying fluid which looked like refrigerant from top of cab but hydraulic fluid makes no difference BECAUSE THIS IS A 12 FEET MISS . WHY WHY WHY THATS A LOT OF CLICKS RIGHT ON SCOPE IF NOT MAXED OUT .

See my first thoughts were clicks left on scope to insure safety of trump but 12 ft miss right at 140 yards guaranteed trumps safety and bullets missing all spectators

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1. his response seems pretty delayed regardless of sound, you know how people pause because of shock?

2. he did turn 90 degrees to it, he was referencing some shitty sensationalist graph on the jumbotron i believe, you can see the crowd looking at the same thing he is.

3. bullets and flesh/hair behave weirdly, he wasnt shot with a laser beam. the bullet might not have hit him at all just passed very close by, rupturing part of his ear, it doesn't seem like he has the best skin care regime so i doubt the structural integrity of his cartilaginous ridges.

4. that picture of the bullet isn't necessarily the one that grazed his ear, his hand is reaching up to touch his ear so it could possibly be a 2nd or 3rd shot.

for your last points we know the bullets are real because they hit things (hydraulics for the speaker assembly, a person.. etc), they acted and behaved like bullets do. so how would trumps safety be insured with someone shooting live rounds at him. Its much easier to believe that the slow response by police and secret service was out of stupidity rather than malicious intent (this is Hanlons Razor) and that no one had control over the situation (Occams Razor), the truth is often more stranger than fiction but in this case it seems logical that a crazy guy in a place with piss poor gun control might do something crazy. I suggest you read the article again.

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1.It was his words that he heard it before not his reaction which was just slapping his ear

2. 4 seconds before he was almost 90 deg but at time of reaction no better than 2 o clock

3. Claim is he was hit at top of ear.

4. yes it may not have been bullet but photos were in timing with reaction and angle show it would be too low to even hit lower part of ear

No one said there were no bullets we just dont know where they came from if they hit ear because of angle , shooter was on gambrel roof and sniper had full view of him at time he reached top pitch and at 130 yards by eyesight could identify type of gun . yes there has been many instances where fbi has controlled terrorist's plots by placing an undercover agent and controlling everything even bombs which were fake till even that fake bomb was attempted to be detonated . It only take about 10 clicks left on his scope to insure safety of Trump i would do more. Undercover agent would befriend him at shooting range and you know there is no way he was quiet about his motives whether it was hate or was to become part of history

like i said major issues are there but i am still without certainty if it was real or false flag instead of grasping at straws to try to prove a necessary outcome . Trump has 100s of loyal supporters who would kill and even die for him

thank you for response

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This all feels like pointless arguing, but here, for the avoidance of any doubt, is the video frame at the moment the first shot is recorded.

https://imgur.com/a/q9jAfPV - his head is fully in profile.

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1. I find it difficult to trust someones memory of an obviously surprising, shocking and adrenaline inducing event. perceptions of memory in traumatic events change from reality, even the synaptic delay of him perceiving sound and a bullet passing him could make this seem different. Also telling the truth isn't very high on Trumps list of ethics/morals. saying he heard it is like saying oh yea i knew it was coming I'm a big tough guy with cat like reflexes.

2. what are you saying, this was choreographed? you'd have to be insane to think that someone would ever think of a plan that involved perfect timing and coordination on trumps part (seriously we are talking about trump) and him dodging a rifle bullet by twisting his noggin. Why cant this easily be explained by luck, how is that not enough.

3. and 4. still, thats not the picture of the bullet that grazed him so it doesn't matter? both sniper teams on the roofs behind trump did not have view of the shooter because of a blind spot caused by a tree.

Your possible version events relies on greater and more outrageous series of luck and coincidence that it purely just makes no sense. 10 clicks left on his scope? in front of a massive crowd of independent media with high-powered cameras... if you're going to fake an assassination attempt you're not going to leave so much of it up to chance. why not make the shooter a "trans liberal far leftist" and control the media narrative. why was the chosen shooter a pro gun republican voter. theres a certain level of confirmation bias going on here that becomes extremely illogical with each different attempt to back up a conspiracy. why is there such a need to sensationalise an event that is hardly abnormal. 4 presidents have been assassinated and 25% of all of them have had credible assassination attempts against them, a lot causing massive injuries. this doesn't include nominees.

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1. yes trump ls a liar

2. no i am not saying it was choreographed. I am saying it would be foolish to dismiss it as choreographed out of necessity .

3. yes you agree not the bullet

4. yes 2 nearest but not other 2 which would be in full communication with 2 that were alerted at least 30 seconds before. the 2 nearest knew something was going on by crowd reaction and reports so would other 2 snipers.

Hey the shooter was what he was , they would not have pick him . they would have be notified of potential threat by tip and since ss is in charge it would be followed up probably by agent in charge or whoever he chose . they may have even let it play out to see if more ppl were involved and opportunity arised and trump put his ok on it because outcome insured he was a god to his followers.

or just maybe physics was suspended for a few seconds and maybe trump is christ. ther are 2 things which i can see with my own eyes which keep me from dismissing this and i wish i did not see it

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it is possible(and far more likely) for the secret service to simply not be good at their jobs. rather than a sustained coordinated conspiracy that has multiple moving parts in a highly uncontrolled environment with a lot of loose ends. Your talking points dont exist in reality, they exist in film and theatre. "i wish i did not see it" - at least you're aware that you're seeing baseless conspiracy theories i guess.

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Actually what i wish i did not see is angle of trump and path through ear with blood splatter or even on hair behind ear out of place . you know you cant give none bullshit reasoning for it because physics NEVER LIE

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